|
摩天大楼指数如影随形的经济危机[1] |
The Skyscraper Index: |
|
1作为一种以巨大的经济力量为支撑的建筑物，摩天大楼常被民众和政客视为展示经济繁荣、社会进步的标志。有些经济学家则持完全相反的看法，认为摩天大楼的出现，特别是摩天大楼的纪录被刷新，往往预示着经济即将衰退。 2高楼建成之日，即是市场衰退之时[3]，这是德意志银行的证券分析师安德鲁劳伦斯于1999年发表的判言。2006年2月15日，雷曼兄弟公司在北京召开全球经济会议，其全球首席经济学家卢埃林向我国客户提及摩天大楼指数的预言：如果全球有发生经济危机的可能性，那很可能会在2007年或2008年。 3雷曼的首席经济学家预见了2007年到2008年的经济危机，但却不曾想到，雷曼的百年基业正是在这场危机中化为泡影。对于经济而言，摩天大楼是荣耀还是诅咒？其与经济危机之间是否真的存在这样密切的联系呢？ 4 1999年，安德鲁劳伦斯经过研究验证了摩天大楼与经济危机的关联，并将这种关联称为摩天大楼指数。每一幢刷新世界纪录的摩天大楼的崛起，往往都伴随着经济的衰退。自20世纪初以来，全球共出现了四轮摩天大楼热，而每一次，都伴随着经济危机或金融动荡。 5 20世纪20年代，美国经济转好，证券市场再度空前繁荣，民用、商用房产建设高歌猛进。这期间，三座刷新纪录的摩天大楼先后兴建。纽约的华尔街40号、克莱斯勒大厦和帝国大厦相继于1929年至1931年的三年中落成，但随之而来的不是新的繁荣，而是空前的大萧条。在经历了被美国人称之为黄金时代的20世纪60年代强劲、持续的经济繁荣后，纽约的世贸中心和芝加哥的西尔斯大厦开始兴建。1972年和1974年，两座再次刷新世界纪录的摩天大楼相继落成，随后，全球经济发生了严重滞胀。 6 摩天大楼与经济危机的关联如此密切，很难用巧合来理解，那么究竟是什么原因让经济危机总是与摩天大楼如影随形呢？ 7 首先，人性使然。人性当中有盲目自信的一面。具体体现在对客观事物认识不足，偏执于对事物的主观看法上。劳伦斯把他发现的经济危机与摩天大楼的联系称为百年病态关联，但此类现象，在人类社会中又何止只存在了百年。以史为鉴，我们不难发现，在我国历史的长河中，此类现象早有体现。商朝兴盛时，纣王兴建造鹿台，引得民怨四起最终于鹿台自焚；清代鼎盛时，乾隆帝大举修建园林，导致国力衰落最终丧权辱国。 8 其次，利益推动。在商业行为中，逐利是前提条件。在经济繁荣之前，通常有一个低利率的过程，这也是经济向繁荣周期转化的一个先决条件。而在经济繁荣的过程中，利率相对于人们对于未来收益的预期来说，一直都是低的。所以，就会产生一系列的利益传导途径，也就是前面所提到的利益链条。经济的繁荣和相对较低的利率，对土地价值和资本成本有着直接的影响。在土地价格、企业需求和资金支撑三个因素所构成的利益链的作用下，可以刷新世界纪录的摩天大楼计划，就应运而生了。 9 就像日有昼夜、季有冬夏一样，经济也是存在景气周期的。任何商品的价格，都会受到供需关系的影响。否极泰来，盛极而衰，低廉的利率、膨胀的需求、上涨的资本价格，以及大多数人盲目乐观的心态，所集合产生的黄金状态构成了摩天大楼的需求，但这种状态是不可持续的。 10 所以，通常是在经济已经步入衰退的时候，摩天大楼才刚刚竣工；在它真正投入使用的时候，经济很可能已经深陷困境。这就导致了经济危机总是与摩天大楼的兴建如影随形，也常使全球第一建筑成为逝去繁荣的纪念碑。 |
Skyscrapers,
as buildings supported by enormous economic power, are often regarded by the
public and by politicians as hallmarks of economic boom and social progress.
Some economists, however, hold the opposite view that newly-built
skyscrapers, especially those record-breaking ones, often foreshadow an
imminent economic recession. The worlds
tallest buildings have risen on the eve of market downturns.[4]This is a verdict
delivered in 1999 by Andrew Lawrence, securities analyst at Deutsche Bank. On
February 15, 2006, when Lehman Brothers had its global economic conference in
Beijing, John Llewellyn, the investment banks global chief economist,
mentioned to the Chinese audience his prediction based on the skyscraper
index: If there is any possibility of a global economic crisis, it is most
likely to occur in 2007 or 2008.[5] Lehman
Brothers chief economist rightly foresaw the economic crisis of 2007 - 2008,
but never imagined that the bank, established on a firm foundation exceeding
a hundred years, was to go up in smoke during that crisis. Now, are
skyscrapers a blessing or a curse for the world economy? Is there indeed so
close a correlation between skyscrapers and economic crises? In 1999, Andrew
Lawrence, after careful study, identified a correlation between skyscrapers
and economic crises and named it the skyscraper index. The theory suggests
that the construction of each world record-breaking skyscraper has been
followed by an economic recession. Since the beginning of the 20th
century, there have occurred four global skyscraper booms, and each preceded
an economic crisis or a financial turmoil. In the 1920s
when the American economy took a turn for the better and the stock market
enjoyed unprecedented prosperity again, real estate development, whether for
civilian use or commercial purposes, made giant strides. During that period,
three record-breaking skyscrapers -- It follows
that the correlation between skyscrapers and economic crises is too close to
be explained away as a mere coincidence. So, what is it that makes an
economic crisis invariably follow the building of the worlds next tallest
building? First, it is
the blind self-confidence of human nature, which is manifested in a stubborn
adherence to subjective opinions without an adequate comprehension of
objective matters. Second, it
is the profit motive. The pursuit of profit is the precondition for all
business practices. Prior to an economic boom, there is usually a period of
low interest rates, which constitutes a prerequisite for the periodic
economic growth that culminates in boom-time conditions. In the economic boom
that follows, interest rates remain low in comparison to the expectations of
future earnings. Therefore, a series of transmission channels of profit, the
profit-transmitting chains discussed earlier, are formed. The economic boom
and the comparatively low interest rates have a direct influence on land
values and capital costs. Thus, by virtue of the profit-transmitting chain
formed by the three factors -- land prices, business needs and financial
support, plans are conceived to build record-breaking skyscrapers. Just as day
is followed by night and summer alternates with winter, the economy follows
the cycle of boom and bust. The prices of commodities are, without exception,
affected by supply and demand. As the Chinese saying goes[7], good fortune emerges
out of the depths of misfortune, while prosperity begins to decline at its
zenith. The low interest rates, the expanding demand and the rising cost of
capital, together with the popular mindset of blind optimism, work together
to create the golden state of euphoria that generates and fuels the demand
for skyscrapers. This state, however, is far from sustainable. Therefore,
the worlds tallest building of each boom period is usually barely completed
when the economy has already begun to slip into recession. As it is put into
use, the economy is, in all probability, already experiencing great
difficulty. This explains why an economic crisis invariably
follows the construction of the worlds next tallest building, often making
the rising tower a monument to the bygone boom-time. |
[1]本文应该选自《你应该懂点投资学》第六章（李意坚著，浙江大学出版社2010年07月出版）。另，《读者》2011年第6期也刊登了一片名为同名文章，但内容有所差异。
[2]This
essay is extracted from Chapter 6, Something
You Should Know About Investment (Li Yijian, Zhejiang University Press,
2007). In rendering the title, the translator drew upon the title of
[3]每一幢刷新世界纪录的摩天大楼的崛起，往往都伴随着经济的衰退。大厦建成，经济衰退。每当有世界最高大楼建成之时，都是经济行将衰退之日。
[4]These words, though in quotations marks, are the authors summary of
[5]In his kind reply to an
email inquiry about the original words of the quote, John Llewellyn said, We
have now found what I said in 2006: I was speaking from a PowerPoint slide, a
copy of which I attach. The relevant words are: For what it is worth, the
skyscraper theory suggests that any crisis is more likely in 2007/8 than in
[6]An unhealthy 100-year correlation exists
between building the worlds next tallest building and an impending financial
crisis. Be it
[7]This introductory expression is added to
make the translation less abrupt and more coherent.