摩天大楼指数——如影随形的经济危机[1]

The Skyscraper Index: Rising Towers Foreshadow Economic Downturns[2]

 

1作为一种以巨大的经济力量为支撑的建筑物，摩天大楼常被民众和政客视为展示经济繁荣、社会进步的标志。有些经济学家则持完全相反的看法，认为摩天大楼的出现，特别是摩天大楼的纪录被刷新，往往预示着经济即将衰退。

 

2“高楼建成之日，即是市场衰退之时”[3]，这是德意志银行的证券分析师安德鲁•劳伦斯于1999年发表的判言。2006年2月15日，雷曼兄弟公司在北京召开全球经济会议，其全球首席经济学家卢埃林向我国客户提及“摩天大楼指数”的预言：“如果全球有发生经济危机的可能性，那很可能会在2007年或2008年。”

 

3雷曼的首席经济学家预见了2007年到2008年的经济危机，但却不曾想到，雷曼的百年基业正是在这场危机中化为泡影。对于经济而言，摩天大楼是荣耀还是诅咒？其与经济危机之间是否真的存在这样密切的联系呢？

 

4 1999年，安德鲁•劳伦斯经过研究验证了摩天大楼与经济危机的关联，并将这种关联称为“摩天大楼指数”。每一幢刷新世界纪录的摩天大楼的崛起，往往都伴随着经济的衰退。自20世纪初以来，全球共出现了四轮摩天大楼热，而每一次，都伴随着经济危机或金融动荡。

 

5 20世纪20年代，美国经济转好，证券市场再度空前繁荣，民用、商用房产建设高歌猛进。这期间，三座刷新纪录的摩天大楼先后兴建。纽约的华尔街40号、克莱斯勒大厦和帝国大厦相继于1929年至1931年的三年中落成，但随之而来的不是新的繁荣，而是空前的大萧条。在经历了被美国人称之为“黄金时代”的20世纪60年代强劲、持续的经济繁荣后，纽约的世贸中心和芝加哥的西尔斯大厦开始兴建。1972年和1974年，两座再次刷新世界纪录的摩天大楼相继落成，随后，全球经济发生了严重滞胀。

 

6 摩天大楼与经济危机的关联如此密切，很难用巧合来理解，那么究竟是什么原因让经济危机总是与摩天大楼如影随形呢？

 

7 首先，人性使然。人性当中有盲目自信的一面。具体体现在对客观事物认识不足，偏执于对事物的主观看法上。劳伦斯把他发现的经济危机与摩天大楼的联系称为“百年病态关联”，但此类现象，在人类社会中又何止只存在了百年。以史为鉴，我们不难发现，在我国历史的长河中，此类现象早有体现。商朝兴盛时，纣王兴建造鹿台，引得民怨四起最终于鹿台自焚；清代鼎盛时，乾隆帝大举修建园林，导致国力衰落最终丧权辱国。

 

8 其次，利益推动。在商业行为中，逐利是前提条件。在经济繁荣之前，通常有一个低利率的过程，这也是经济向繁荣周期转化的一个先决条件。而在经济繁荣的过程中，利率相对于人们对于未来收益的预期来说，一直都是低的。所以，就会产生一系列的利益传导途径，也就是前面所提到的利益链条。经济的繁荣和相对较低的利率，对土地价值和资本成本有着直接的影响。在土地价格、企业需求和资金支撑三个因素所构成的利益链的作用下，可以刷新世界纪录的摩天大楼计划，就应运而生了。

 

9 就像日有昼夜、季有冬夏一样，经济也是存在景气周期的。任何商品的价格，都会受到供需关系的影响。否极泰来，盛极而衰，低廉的利率、膨胀的需求、上涨的资本价格，以及大多数人盲目乐观的心态，所集合产生的“黄金状态”构成了摩天大楼的需求，但这种状态是不可持续的。

 

10 所以，通常是在经济已经步入衰退的时候，摩天大楼才刚刚竣工；在它真正投入使用的时候，经济很可能已经深陷困境。这就导致了经济危机总是与摩天大楼的兴建如影随形，也常使全球第一建筑成为逝去繁荣的纪念碑。

 

Skyscrapers, as buildings supported by enormous economic power, are often regarded by the public and by politicians as hallmarks of economic boom and social progress. Some economists, however, hold the opposite view that newly-built skyscrapers, especially those record-breaking ones, often foreshadow an imminent economic recession.

 

“The world’s tallest buildings have risen on the eve of market downturns.”[4] This is a “verdict” delivered in 1999 by Andrew Lawrence, securities analyst at Deutsche Bank. On February 15, 2006, when Lehman Brothers had its global economic conference in Beijing, John Llewellyn, the investment bank’s global chief economist, mentioned to the Chinese audience his prediction based on the “skyscraper index”: “If there is any possibility of a global economic crisis, it is most likely to occur in 2007 or 2008.”[5] 

 

Lehman Brothers’ chief economist rightly foresaw the economic crisis of 2007 - 2008, but never imagined that the bank, established on a firm foundation exceeding a hundred years, was to go up in smoke during that crisis. Now, are skyscrapers a blessing or a curse for the world economy? Is there indeed so close a correlation between skyscrapers and economic crises?

 

In 1999, Andrew Lawrence, after careful study, identified a correlation between skyscrapers and economic crises and named it “the skyscraper index.” The theory suggests that the construction of each world record-breaking skyscraper has been followed by an economic recession. Since the beginning of the 20th century, there have occurred four global skyscraper booms, and each preceded an economic crisis or a financial turmoil.

 

In the 1920s when the American economy took a turn for the better and the stock market enjoyed unprecedented prosperity again, real estate development, whether for civilian use or commercial purposes, made giant strides. During that period, three record-breaking skyscrapers -- 40 Wall Street, the Chrysler Building and the Empire State Building -- were launched one after another and were completed within the three years from 1929 to 1931. That, however, was followed by the Great Depression instead of another boom. Then, after a strong, sustained boom in the 1960s, called the “Golden Age” by Americans, the construction of the World Trade Center and the Sears Tower began. These two record-breaking skyscrapers were completed in 1972 and 1974, but in their wake came global stagflation.

 

It follows that the correlation between skyscrapers and economic crises is too close to be explained away as a mere coincidence. So, what is it that makes an economic crisis invariably follow the building of the world’s next tallest building?

 

First, it is the blind self-confidence of human nature, which is manifested in a stubborn adherence to subjective opinions without an adequate comprehension of objective matters. Lawrence describes the relation he has identified between skyscrapers and economic crises as an “unhealthy 100-year correlation.”[6] In fact, this phenomenon has existed in human society much longer than a mere hundred years. Looking into the mirror of the past, we can easily find similar occurrences in the long course of China’s history. For example, at the height of the Shang Dynasty (16th -11th Century B.C.), Emperor Zhou ordered to construct the magnificent Stag Tower, provoking widespread anger among the people, which led to the emperor’s self-immolation on the tower. Similarly, at the zenith of the Qing Dynasty (1616—1911), Emperor Qianlong had grandiose gardens and palaces built, resulting in the dynasty’s decline and, consequently, its humiliation by foreign powers and its loss of sovereignty.

 

Second, it is the profit motive. The pursuit of profit is the precondition for all business practices. Prior to an economic boom, there is usually a period of low interest rates, which constitutes a prerequisite for the periodic economic growth that culminates in boom-time conditions. In the economic boom that follows, interest rates remain low in comparison to the expectations of future earnings. Therefore, a series of transmission channels of profit, the profit-transmitting chains discussed earlier, are formed. The economic boom and the comparatively low interest rates have a direct influence on land values and capital costs. Thus, by virtue of the profit-transmitting chain formed by the three factors -- land prices, business needs and financial support, plans are conceived to build record-breaking skyscrapers.

 

Just as day is followed by night and summer alternates with winter, the economy follows the cycle of boom and bust. The prices of commodities are, without exception, affected by supply and demand. As the Chinese saying goes[7], good fortune emerges out of the depths of misfortune, while prosperity begins to decline at its zenith. The low interest rates, the expanding demand and the rising cost of capital, together with the popular mindset of blind optimism, work together to create the “golden state” of euphoria that generates and fuels the demand for skyscrapers. This state, however, is far from sustainable.

 

Therefore, the world’s tallest building of each boom period is usually barely completed when the economy has already begun to slip into recession. As it is put into use, the economy is, in all probability, already experiencing great difficulty. This explains why an economic crisis invariably follows the construction of the world’s next tallest building, often making the rising tower a monument to the bygone boom-time.

 

 


[1] 本文应该选自《你应该懂点投资学》第六章（李意坚著，浙江大学出版社2010年07月出版）。另，《读者》2011年第6期也刊登了一片名为同名文章，但内容有所差异。

[2] This essay is extracted from Chapter 6, Something You Should Know About Investment (Li Yijian, Zhejiang University Press, 2007). In rendering the title, the translator drew upon the title of Lawrence’s paper, The Skyscraper Index: Faulty Towers (Property Report, March 3, 1999), and his conclusion that “Economic downturns seem as inevitable as rising girders” (The Curse Bites: The Skyscraper Index Strikes. Property Report, March 3, 1999).

[3] 每一幢刷新世界纪录的摩天大楼的崛起，往往都伴随着经济的衰退。大厦建成，经济衰退。每当有世界最高大楼建成之时，都是经济行将衰退之日。

[4] These words, though in quotations marks, are the author’s summary of Lawrence’s findings, not Lawrence’s exact words. Among the related comments from Lawrence is: “[T]he erratic construction of the world’s next tallest building has largely coincided with financial crises.” (The Skyscraper Index: Faulty Towers. Property Report, January 15, 1999.)

[5] In his kind reply to an email inquiry about the original words of the quote, John Llewellyn said, “We have now found what I said in 2006: I was speaking from a PowerPoint slide, a copy of which I attach. The relevant words are: ‘For what it is worth, the skyscraper theory suggests that any crisis is more likely in 2007/8 than in 2006’. That was apparently quite a good prediction!” [From: john.llewellyn@llewellyn-consulting.com Date: 2011-04-14 16:29:43 RE: May I ask you a question?]

[6] “An unhealthy 100-year correlation exists between building the world’s next tallest building and an impending financial crisis. Be it New York in 1930, Chicago in 1974 or Kuala Lumpur in 1997, almost all the tallest buildings have heralded a major financial correction.” (Lawrence, The Skyscraper Index: Faulty Towers. Property Report, January 15, 1999.)

[7] This introductory expression is added to make the translation less abrupt and more coherent.